Alpha (Break-Even Bluff Frequency)

What is Alpha?

Alpha tells you how often your bluff needs to work to break even. If you bluff and your opponent folds more than alpha% of the time, the bluff shows a profit.

Formula: alpha = bet / (pot + bet). Example: You bet 50% pot → alpha = 33%.

Bluff is profitable if opponent folds >33%.

alpha = bet / (pot + bet)

Why it matters

Alpha is calculated assuming the bluff has 0% equity when called. Semi-bluffs (hands with draw equity) need villain to fold less often to be profitable, because even when called they win some fraction.

Where it shows up

Alpha / Break-Even Bluff

Calculating the fold frequency needed for a bluff to profit.

Nuance and caveats

Alpha and MDF are two sides of the same coin: alpha = required_fold_freq; MDF = 1 - alpha = required_call_freq. In multiway pots, each player must fold at alpha^(1/n) individually for a bluff to achieve the same total fold probability alpha.

Alpha increases as bet size increases — larger bets need more folds but can be balanced with more bluffs (the bluff-to-value ratio also scales).

Key takeaway

Alpha — how often a bluff must succeed to break even (= bet / (bet + pot)).