Poker EV Calculator

What expected value measures

Expected value is the average result of a decision if you could repeat it forever. Each outcome is multiplied by how often it happens, and the products are added together.

EV = P(win) × amount won + P(lose) × amount lost

How the calculation works

List the outcomes, attach a probability to each, multiply and add. Two outcomes is the common case: you win the pot, or you lose what you put in.

The probabilities have to sum to one and the amounts are signed from your side of the table — a loss is a negative number, not a smaller positive one.

Why bluffs have an EV too

A bluff is a decision with two outcomes: villain folds and you win the pot, or villain continues and you lose your bet. The fold frequency that makes those two cancel out is alpha.

Bluffing 25% pot

Breaks even when villain folds 20.0% of the time.

Bluffing 33% pot

Breaks even when villain folds 24.8% of the time.

Bluffing 50% pot

Breaks even when villain folds 33.3% of the time.

Bluffing 66% pot

Breaks even when villain folds 39.8% of the time.

Bluffing 75% pot

Breaks even when villain folds 42.9% of the time.

Common mistakes

Judging the decision by the result

A +EV call that loses was still the right call. One hand tells you nothing about the decision that produced it — that is the entire point of the measure.

Counting money already in the pot as yours

Chips you bet earlier are gone whatever you do next. Only the money still to be won or lost belongs in the calculation.

Guessing the probability and trusting the output

EV is only as good as the frequency you feed it. Changing an assumed fold percentage by ten points often flips the answer.

Practical examples

Bluffing 33% of the pot

You risk 0.33 to win 1, so the bluff breaks even when villain folds 24.8% of the time. Fold more often than that and every hand in your bluffing range prints money; fold less and it burns it.

Bluffing 50% of the pot

You risk 0.5 to win 1, so the bluff breaks even when villain folds 33.3% of the time. Fold more often than that and every hand in your bluffing range prints money; fold less and it burns it.

Bluffing 75% of the pot

You risk 0.75 to win 1, so the bluff breaks even when villain folds 42.9% of the time. Fold more often than that and every hand in your bluffing range prints money; fold less and it burns it.

Bluffing 100% of the pot

You risk 1 to win 1, so the bluff breaks even when villain folds 50.0% of the time. Fold more often than that and every hand in your bluffing range prints money; fold less and it burns it.

Bluffing 200% of the pot

You risk 2 to win 1, so the bluff breaks even when villain folds 66.7% of the time. Fold more often than that and every hand in your bluffing range prints money; fold less and it burns it.

Key terms

Alpha / Break-Even Bluff

Calculating the fold frequency needed for a bluff to profit.

Key takeaway

A losing session is not evidence of a bad decision, and a winning one is not evidence of a good one. EV is the only measure that separates the decision from the result.