One flop decision in the big blind against a small c-bet. MDF says defend 75%, the arithmetic behind that 75% is correct, and you should still fold — because the calculation was never about your cards.
Hand info
MTT, single raised pot, no ante. Blinds 0.5 / 1.
FLOP · 37.5BB EFFECTIVE
FLOP · BB CHECKS · UTG BETS 1.8BB
6-max table. Hero is BB with 37.5 big blinds effective. FLOP: Ah, Qd, 3s. FLOP · BB CHECKS · UTG BETS 1.8BB. Hero holds 9h and 6h.
Hand history
Pre-flop
Flop
You defended your big blind against an UTG open and the flop is A♥ Q♦ 3♠ — ace-high and rainbow. You check, and UTG bets 1.8bb: one third of the pot, the smallest real bet in the game. You hold 9♥ 6♥ — no pair, no straight draw, and three hearts to a backdoor flush. There is 7.3bb in the middle and 1.8bb to call, with 37.5bb behind. Against this size, minimum defence frequency says the big blind defends 75% of the time.